Indispensable – Gautam Mukunda

The National Government won a victory so overwhelming that Baldwin had no need to placate the Conservatives’ right wing by including Churchill, its champion, in the cabinet. Chamberlain had firmly cemented his position as Baldwin’s successor whenever the sixty-eight-year-old prime minister chose to retire.13 Baldwin’s departure from office was triggered by the crisis over Edward VIII’s desire to marry the American divorcée Wallace Warfield Simpson. Baldwin informed the king that the people simply would not accept Simpson as queen under any circumstances.

Although Churchill scrambled to find a way out of the constitutional crisis—further discrediting himself— Baldwin forced the king to choose between the throne and marrying Simpson. Edward chose to abdicate, passing the throne to his younger brother, George VI. Baldwin, riding a wave of popularity because of his handling of the affair, decided that it was time to step down and pass the reins of government to Chamberlain, which he did on May 28, 1937.14 Assessment Other than his late start and non-Oxbridge education, Chamberlain’s political career presents an almost prototypical example of how a British prime minister reaches the top of the greasy pole.

A successful businessman before entering politics, he served with at least moderate success in two different major cabinet offices, including an extended period as chancellor of the exchequer, a position second in importance only to the prime minister. While a member of the cabinet he was prime minister-in-waiting for several years. Baldwin, his peers in the cabinet, and backbench MPs all had ample opportunity to evaluate his potential to be prime minister.

No Filtered alternatives come up in the story largely because there were no likely other candidates. But as Chamberlain’s premiership continued, Filtered alternatives did emerge, providing the alternatives necessary to test LFT. Given the career that led him to the premiership, Chamberlain should clearly be classified as a Filtered, and likely Modal, prime minister.

Appeasement When Neville Chamberlain moved into Number 10 there was little doubt that his greatest task would be dealing with Nazi Germany.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mukunda, Gautam. Indispensable : when leaders really matter / Gautam Mukunda. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4221-8670-1 e-ISBN: 978-1-422-18671-8 1. Leadership. 2. Leadership—History. I. Title. HD57.7.M845 2012 658.4′092—dc23 2012012381 The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Publications and Documents in Libraries and Archives Z39.48-1992.

OceanofPDF.com For my parents, who gave me everything OceanofPDF.com Angels are bright still, though the brightest fell. Though all things foul would wear the brows of grace, Yet grace must still look so. —William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act 4, Scene 3 The graveyards are full of indispensable men. —variously attributed to Elbert Hubbard, Georges Clemenceau, and Charles de Gaulle OceanofPDF.com CONTENTS Preface ONE Hunting the High-Impact Leader TWO Enter the Presidents THREE It Is the Whole Colony” Jefferson and the Louisiana Purchase FOUR The Best of Us” Lincoln and the Civil War FIVE We Can Always Depend on Mr. Wilson” Wilson, the Senate, and the Treaty of Versailles SIX Crashed into Ruins” Chamberlain and Appeasement SEVEN We Shall Never Surrender” Churchill and the Choice to Fight EIGHT Beyond Politics The Royal Navy, Business, and Non-Normal Science NINE The Tragedy—and Potential Triumph—of Leadership Acknowledgments Appendix: Statistical Test of US Presidents Notes Bibliography Index About the Author OceanofPDF.com PREFACE The idea that became this book began with a simple, almost rhetorical question from one of my mentors, Steve Van Evera, who wandered into my office one day and asked me: “Why do so many crazy people run countries?”

Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot, Saddam Hussein—surely no one would knowingly have chosen one of those people to rule their country. Yet rule they did. I found out, to my surprise, that the formal political science literature had surprisingly little to say on the subject. Most political science research either implicitly assumes or explicitly argues that individual leaders don’t matter much at all. A little more reading revealed that other fields, particularly management, come to basically the same conclusion.

I realized that all this social science was a sophisticated version of a classic dorm-room debate that nearly every college student has participated in. Do the times make the person or the person the times? Academic research was coming down pretty decisively on one side of that debate. There’s a famous quote that is usually, although incorrectly, attributed to Charles de Gaulle: “The graveyards are full of indispensable men.”

This is a short excerpt from the opening of “” by Unknown, quoted for review and introduction purposes. All rights belong to the copyright holders.

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